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Applied math seminar: Modeling emergence, spread, and control of mosquito-borne disease

Event Type: 
Seminar
Speaker: 
Michael Robert UNM Biology
Event Date: 
Monday, November 2, 2015 - 3:00pm
Location: 
SMLC 356
Audience: 
Faculty/StaffStudents

Event Description: 

Abstract:

 
Mathematical modeling plays a critical role in the process of understanding emergence, spread, and control of diseases. In this talk, I will discuss projects aimed at answering questions at two separate stages of this process in the context of dengue fever.
 
Dengue fever is a viral disease vectored primarily by the mosquito species Aedes aegypti. Dengue is endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions of the world, and it is estimated that over 380 million cases occur each year. Due to increases in global travel and expansion of the distribution of Ae. aegypti, dengue has been establishing in more temperate regions in recent years. Among these regions is southern Florida, where two small outbreaks of dengue have occurred in the last five years.
 
There are no vaccines or prophylactic treatments available for dengue, so control relies upon control of Ae. aegypti. Unfortunately, many traditional vector control methods have not been sufficient for eliminating dengue, so a number of efforts have been made to develop and release genetically modified mosquitoes (GMMs) that either cannot transmit dengue or cannot produce viable offspring.
 
In this talk, I will first discuss a model I developed to address questions about the potential for dengue emergence in the Miami Urbanized Area of southern Florida by exploring the impacts on epidemic dynamics of the time and location at which cases are first imported into the region. Second, I will discuss a model that I developed to theoretically compare a number of GMM strategies for reducing the population of vectors that can transmit disease and elucidates the evolutionary and ecological factors that contribute to the success and failure of proposed strategies.
 

Event Contact

Contact Name: Daniel Appelo

Contact Email: appelo@math.unm.edu