Math Camp 2014
Modeling Infectious Diseases
On Friday, you will lead the discusion of Group Projects

• Day 1
  
• Questions
• Recent articles:
  
  • Whooping cough bounces back in Science News, April 19, 2014
    
  • Measles case in U.S. Doubled in past month in the ABQ Journal, May, 2014
    
  • Second U.S. MERS case reported in the ABQ Journal, May, 2014
    
  • Death Toll From Ebola Surges in West Africa, Prompting Alarm in the New York Times, July 16, 2014
    
  • First chikungunya cases acquired in the U.S. reported in the USA Today, July 17, 2014
    
• Morning Notes (Simple Model)
• Afternoon Notes (SIR Model)
• Day 2
  
• Morning Notes (Applying Data)
  
• Kermack-McKendrick paper
  
• Boarding School paper
  
• Boarding School Data (Confined to Bed)
  
• Eyam Data (Plague Victims)
  
• Raggett paper
  
• Matlab Codes for Phase Plane Analysis:
  
  • Sulsky's primitive code: phaseplane.m
    
  • SIR differential equations: sir.m
    
  • Polking's sophisticated code: pplane8.m
• Afternoon Notes (Continuous-Discrete Connections)
• Day 3
  
• Morning Notes (Recurrent Epidemics)
  
• Matlab Codes for SIR with demography:
  
  • SIRendemic.m
    
  • SIRwithdemography.m
    
  Matlab Codes for SIR with seasonality:
  
  • SIRwithseasonality.m
    
  • SIRforced.m
    
  • SIRseasonalbif.m
    
• Day 4
  
• Morning Notes (Simple Stochastic Model)
  Matlab Codes for Stochastic Model:
  
  • stochastic_reedfrost.m
    
  • stochasticSIR.m
    
• Afternoon Notes (Interventions)
  

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Interesting Articles by Anderson and May:

• Population biology of infectious diseases Nature: Part I
  
• Population biology of infectious diseases Nature: Part II
  

Interesting Recent Article in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society:

• 'Towards the endgame and beyond: complexities and challenges for the elimination of infectious diseases'
  

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Additional ODE Solvers:
Euler's Method (A first order Runge-Kutta Method)
Improved Euler's Method (A second order Runge-Kutta Method)
RK4 (A fourth order Runge-Kutta Method)