Bayesian Methods in Operational Testing: Enhancing Testing Through Combining Information

Abstract / Summary:

When developing a system, considering system performance from a user perspective can be done through operational testing---assessing the ability of representative users to accomplish tasks with the system in operationally representative environments. This critical process can be expensive and time-consuming. We show how to leverage an existing design of experiments (DOE) process to construct a Bayesian adaptive design. This method allows for interim analyses using predictive probabilities to stop testing early for success or futility. Furthermore, operational environments are directly used in product evaluation. Representative simulations demonstrate reductions in necessary test events. Next, priors are built using developmental testing data. The novel proposal for creating priors using developmental testing data allows for more flexibility than the current process and demonstrates it is possible to get more precise parameter estimates. The methods presented will allow future testing to be conducted in less time and at less expense, on average.

Zoom Meeting Link: https://unm.zoom.us/j/97892072298

Meeting ID: 978 9207 2298

*Zoom Password Required*

Meeting Password: 774214